In a seminar yesterday, a thesis student presented a pure narrative about corn farmers’ decision-making process about seasonal climate forecast. He also flashed on the screen a theoretical decision tree that the project managers had developed. The lack of analysis suggested the need to have a systematic method to describe the problem and identify the key components.
I suggested that one way for him to make sense of the information he got from farmers, on how they had used climatic forecasts to make farm decisions and the outcomes of those decisions, was to construct historical and seasonal profiles.
In the 1990s, as theme leader in the Rice IPM Network, we conducted a series of workshops in the Philippines, Indonesia, Thailand and Vietnam to get research and extension partners to arrive at a common understanding of the pest management problems in their countries. The experts, Geoff Norton and John Mumford from Imperial College and K.L. Heong from IRRI, introduced various decision tools at these workshops – time profiles, flow charts, discrimination analysis, field force analysis, causal analysis and matrices.
What is a historical profile?
A historical profile is a tool for assessing gradual changes that their causes are making. To construct a historical profile in a workshop situation, participants are asked to recall major events that have taken place in the community with approximate dates. These can relate to the introduction of new technologies, political events or natural disasters.
This technique is used when there is a need to see current problems from a historical perspective. Through this approach, one can understand the broad dimensions of a problem, and identify constraints and opportunities for resolving them (Norton and Mumford 1993).
Participants in groups develop these profiles and the information is presented graphically in a single sheet of paper to provide a general description of the time dimensions of a problem. Graphical presentation of historical information is an effective tool to enhance communication among stakeholders with various academic backgrounds.
How to construct a historical profile
1. Identify the major factors that directly or indirectly influence the development of a particular problem.
2. Determine the relevant time period over which changes in these factors are to be considered; 20 years or more is often desirable.
A series of graphs can then be drawn, using expert opinion available in the workshop group, or from various statistical sources. The level of detail required in drawing the historical profile is simply that which is sufficient to indicate important trends and relationships. Further detail may add little to a good, rough assessment.
Uses of historical profiles
- It provides a structured means of bringing together information on a range of aspects that may all have had some influence on the development of the problem.
- Used as a workshop tool, the historical profile sets an agenda, helps to focus discussion, provides a simplified method of communication between participants from different disciplines, and stimulates interaction.
In the process of constructing the historical profile, hypotheses or key questions are raised. It also provides a rigorous basis for thinking about possible future developments (or scenarios) that can affect the status of the problem and the ability of those concerned to deal with them.
Reference
Norton GA, Mumford JD. 1993. Decision tools for pest management. Wallingford (UK): CAB International.
8 comments
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March 19, 2008 at 11:27 pm
Jojo Agot
Ma’am Moni,
I’m just wondering, are historical profiles considered empirical? How many sources do you need in order to make them reliable enough to base your assumptions from?
I’m sure part of the answer would be “as long as you get a trend…” but I’m thinking about individual bias, poor memory of the information sources, and the number of sources you need to ensure you get a better better understanding of the history.
For a student to get all these, I think the bulk of the information needed might be big enough for it to be treated as a separate research.
And I wonder how a researcher is going to justify this part of the study when this is not clearly stated in the objectives (because he just suddenly realized a historical profile is needed halfway through his research). Or maybe this should have been specified in the objectives to begin with?
I’m just curious. Thank you.
March 20, 2008 at 5:05 am
Monina Escalada
A historical profile is developed to help one better understand the problem — when it occurred, what has been the pattern or trend on a yearly basis, etc. Often, it is not a research project by itself but it can be used to justify a research proposal as a historical profile reveals the magnitude of the problem.
When constructing it, information is obtained from several key informants. The historical profile may be constructed in a workshop setting so that the key informants can verify each other’s information. Alternatively, someone can get info from many sources in the field and then construct the profile in the office. But he must return to the field and show the historical profile to his key informants for validation. Did he get the key dates and events right? We call this consultation.
In a scoping study or rapid appraisal, a historical profile would be a a very useful informative tool.
April 2, 2008 at 8:56 am
Efren B. Saz
This is also called a historical transect no? We have tried some exercises of this sort but they were more general in scope. Now I see the usefulness of this tool when applied to specific problems. The information should be specific enough to give the stakeholders a good picture of the situation over time. I think this tool should not be used just to get a historical view of the village (s) but really of a problem.
April 2, 2008 at 9:21 am
Monina Escalada
The scientists at Imperial College who taught us this technique call it historical profile to refer to the temporal trend or pattern of a specific problem. It is not the same as the historical profile of a village or a province that you see when you google this term. It is really a problem definition tool. For the brown planthopper/virus problem in Vietnam, our plant protection partners should be able to construct a historical profile of that problem 5 years from now. A seasonal profile can also be constructed to give a season by season picture of the occurrence and intensity of a problem. That way, one gets not a snapshot but a moving image of the problem.
April 4, 2008 at 12:02 pm
Rene C. Trance
I’m a bit confused with the definition of historical profile because it sounds like a case study which is basically dependent on the data gathered from the key informants. Getting a moving picture of the problem seems to convince me that historical profile, as a method, utilizes the linear view of history.
Just thinking about… Thank you.
April 4, 2008 at 2:54 pm
Monina Escalada
Rene, thanks for dropping by. A historical profile as used in problem definition is not a case study. It is just one of the tools to better understand a problem. It has been applied more widely in agriculture. For instance, in a workshop in Sukamandi, Indonesia, the Indonesian rice scientists constructed a historical profile of Indonesia’s shift to direct seeding from transplanting. They noted the year when the Indonesian government advised farmers to direct seed and the year to year developments in rice farming which led to a policy change. In the historical profile, they were able to show visually when farm labor shortage was at its peak which led to policy change in government.
In the brown planthopper/virus disease problem in the Mekong Delta, the Vietnamese plant protection scientists can also plot the historical profile of the problem perhaps 5 years from now by using statistics on total rice areas damaged since 2005.
As described, it may look linear but it helps biological scientists get a good handle of the problem.
April 14, 2008 at 9:57 am
Rotacio Gravoso
Ma’am Moni,
I see the potentials of historical profile as a tool for understanding farmers’ (or clientele’s) experiences of events. But how should we deal with conflicting ideas? In the sample historical profile, how did the farmers arrive at the values for the y-axis? Are these values estimates? Thank you very much.
April 14, 2008 at 10:56 am
Monina Escalada
Rotach, the sample historical profile on golden apple snail infestation was constructed by plant protection people in a workshop we had at PhilRice. The figures were based on actual infestation records of the Department of Agriculture. For farmers or any group putting together a historical profile , there must a consensus on dates or milestones. It is best to do it in a group situation, such as in a workshop. But it can be done in a farmers’ yard as well. It is important to triangulate — refer to existing records, consult key informants, and have the historical profile validated by available experts. Tiangulation and validation will enhance the reliability and credibility of the historical profile.