Women farmers cultivating their rice field, Central Java
I just had a conversation with a colleague who had been to a workshop to plan the dissemination of seasonal climate forecast in the Philippines. To decide when to plant corn or rice, farmers will have to use the computer model developed by an ACIAR project assuming that they have access to a computer. Where computer facilities are not available for farmers, an alternative is to get hold of the simplified version of the computer model from PAGASA.
Supportive innovation system
My back-of-the-envelope advice to my colleague is: For the seasonal climate forecast model to take off, the structure must be in place that will facilitate its adoption by farmers. PAGASA and the local government unit, which implements agricultural extension services in the Philippines, must be key partners in this innovation system. The local technician will serve as the conduit between the weather bureau and the farmers. However, the municipal agricultural officer will function only if the municipal mayor approves of his/her involvement in this initiative. This could come about if the mayor discerns a “win” for his LGU’s involvement. If the activities are part of an agency’s mandate or mission, then partnerships can easily be established. The question often left unspoken is: “What is in it for an agency to be involved in the project?”
Benefits from innovation
Granted that the kinks at the agency level will have been ironed out and formalized through some memorandum of understanding, at the extension technician-farmer chain, it is necessary to demonstrate the economic benefits that will accrue to farmers when they use seasonal climate forecast to guide their planting decisions. How much money will farmers gain per hectare per season if they adopted the seasonal climate forecast to make planting decisions?
Risk aversion
Apart from distilling technical weather data into a usable knowledge product or simple decision rule, there is also the element of risk that farmers have to contend with. In the face of climate change, the risks can be quite high. Thus, farmers need to be able to weigh the benefits and the costs (risks) involved in the use of seasonal climate forecasts for their planting decisions. As climate change has complicated the not-so-exact science of weather forecasting, how willing are farmers for this uncertain payoff?
Perhaps one way out of this is to organize farmers in groups to spread the transaction cost in accessing and using the seasonal climate forecast model. This may be done by tapping the facilities of the local government unit or the Techno Gabay program.
A parallel arrangement was done in the Mekong Delta to implement the “escape strategy” at the height of the brown planthopper (BPH)/virus disease outbreak in 2005-2006. Groups of farmers maintained light traps and the information was brought to the local plant protection center. The local technician analyzed the light trap data and made decisions when to plant rice to help farmers avoid the BPH. Read more about the “escape strategy” …
Can the risks n using rainfall data to decide when to plant be reduced? Will the benefit that will accrue to farmers outweigh the costs and risks involved? Please share your ideas by posting your comments.
